The Week Ahead: Tracking Mortgage Trends

Home values

Monthly trends from the mortgage trends will be in focus with the release of Black Knight’s Mortgage Monitor report for June on Monday, August 5. The report is based upon the company’s industry-leading mortgage performance, housing, and public records datasets.

In its previous report, that looked at datasets for May, Black Knight gave an overview of the resurgence in mortgage prepayments spurred by lower interest rates and seasonal increases in home sale activity. The report indicated that borrowers with 2018 vintage loans are now driving more than twice as much prepayment volume as any other vintage after jumping by more than 300% over the past four months.

According to Black Knight’s early estimates for May, closed refinance loans rose by more than 30% from April 2019, with May 2019’s refinance volumes estimated to be three times higher than the 10-year low reached in November 2018. In fact, 8.2 million homeowners with mortgages could now both benefit from and likely qualify for a refinance, including more than 35% of those who took out their loans just last year.

“While we’ve observed increases across nearly every investor type, product type, credit score bucket, and vintage, some changes stand out,” said Ben Graboske, President, Black Knight Data & Analytics. “For instance, prepayments among fixed-rate loans have hewed close to the overall market average, rising by more than two times over the past four months. However, ARM prepayment rates have now jumped to their highest level since 2007 as borrowers have sought to shed the uncertainty of their adjustable-rate products for the security of a low, fixed interest rate over the long haul.”

Here’s what else is happening in the week ahead:

  • CoreLogic Home Price Index Report, Tuesday, 9 a.m. EST
  • MBA Mortgage Apps, Wednesday, 7 a.m. EST
  • Ellie Mae Millennial Tracker, Wednesday, 10 a.m. PST
  • Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Markets Survey, Thursday, 10 a.m. EST
  • CoreLogic Home Equity Report, Thursday, 9 a.m. EST